Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 145,006
2 Rhode Island 143,771
3 South Dakota 140,593
4 Utah 127,897
5 Tennessee 124,853
6 Arizona 121,940
7 Iowa 118,143
8 Wisconsin 116,208
9 Nebraska 115,739
10 South Carolina 115,618
11 Oklahoma 114,969
12 New Jersey 114,841
13 Arkansas 114,112
14 Delaware 112,369
15 Indiana 111,876
16 Alabama 111,797
17 Illinois 109,850
18 Kansas 109,031
19 Idaho 108,507
20 New York 108,373
21 Mississippi 107,329
22 Florida 107,124
23 Minnesota 107,109
24 Nevada 106,433
25 Wyoming 105,921
26 Montana 105,781
27 Georgia 104,050
28 Kentucky 103,800
29 Massachusetts 102,867
30 Texas 102,547
31 Louisiana 102,492
32 Missouri 101,479
33 Michigan 99,736
34 Connecticut 97,753
35 New Mexico 97,476
36 Colorado 96,308
37 North Carolina 96,295
38 California 96,283
39 Alaska 95,868
40 Pennsylvania 94,811
41 Ohio 94,748
42 West Virginia 91,075
43 Virginia 79,426
44 Maryland 76,353
45 New Hampshire 72,940
46 District of Columbia 69,731
47 Washington 58,735
48 Puerto Rico 54,189
49 Maine 51,057
50 Oregon 48,713
51 Vermont 39,005
52 Hawaii 25,286

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 108
2 Louisiana 79
3 Nevada 74
4 Missouri 73
5 Utah 62
6 Colorado 60
7 Idaho 59
8 Montana 58
9 Alabama 57
10 New Mexico 55
11 Washington 55
12 Arkansas 54
13 Arizona 53
14 West Virginia 52
15 North Carolina 46
16 Oklahoma 45
17 Oregon 44
18 Indiana 36
19 Mississippi 35
20 Delaware 33
21 Kentucky 33
22 South Carolina 31
23 Alaska 30
24 Kansas 29
25 Rhode Island 29
26 Michigan 27
27 Texas 27
28 New Hampshire 26
29 District of Columbia 25
30 Hawaii 25
31 New Jersey 25
32 Pennsylvania 24
33 Iowa 23
34 Tennessee 23
35 California 22
36 Georgia 22
37 Maine 22
38 Minnesota 20
39 North Dakota 20
40 Ohio 20
41 New York 18
42 Wisconsin 18
43 Illinois 16
44 Nebraska 16
45 Connecticut 15
46 Puerto Rico 13
47 South Dakota 12
48 Maryland 11
49 Vermont 10
50 Virginia 10
51 Massachusetts 8
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,966
2 New York 2,724
3 Massachusetts 2,604
4 Rhode Island 2,570
5 Mississippi 2,473
6 Arizona 2,442
7 Connecticut 2,317
8 Alabama 2,300
9 Louisiana 2,293
10 South Dakota 2,290
11 Pennsylvania 2,153
12 Michigan 2,083
13 New Mexico 2,052
14 Indiana 2,042
15 North Dakota 2,036
16 Illinois 2,012
17 Arkansas 1,944
18 Iowa 1,934
19 Georgia 1,930
20 South Carolina 1,901
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,828
23 Tennessee 1,816
24 Texas 1,798
25 Kansas 1,770
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,721
29 Kentucky 1,615
30 District of Columbia 1,612
31 Maryland 1,602
32 Missouri 1,600
33 California 1,599
34 West Virginia 1,593
35 Montana 1,541
36 Wisconsin 1,377
37 Minnesota 1,349
38 Virginia 1,327
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,269
41 Wyoming 1,268
42 Colorado 1,187
43 Idaho 1,185
44 New Hampshire 1,003
45 Puerto Rico 794
46 Washington 767
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 655
49 Maine 630
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Wyoming 5
2 Kansas 2
3 Alabama 1
4 Kentucky 1
5 Michigan 1
6 Missouri 1
7 Montana 1
8 Pennsylvania 1
9 Virginia 1
10 West Virginia 1
11 Alaska 0
12 Arizona 0
13 Arkansas 0
14 California 0
15 Colorado 0
16 Connecticut 0
17 Delaware 0
18 District of Columbia 0
19 Florida 0
20 Georgia 0
21 Hawaii 0
22 Idaho 0
23 Illinois 0
24 Indiana 0
25 Iowa 0
26 Louisiana 0
27 Maine 0
28 Maryland 0
29 Massachusetts 0
30 Minnesota 0
31 Mississippi 0
32 Nebraska 0
33 Nevada 0
34 New Hampshire 0
35 New Jersey 0
36 New Mexico 0
37 New York 0
38 North Carolina 0
39 North Dakota 0
40 Ohio 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Carolina 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,419 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,851 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,849 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,543 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,338 195 93
Richland South Carolina 113,943 999 68
York South Carolina 113,795 1005 68
Orange California 85,898 2270 27
Pierce Washington 62,254 2830 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,607 1857 40
York South Carolina 1,392 2110 32
Richland South Carolina 1,383 2123 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,363 2148 31
Pierce Washington 697 2804 10

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons